福岡県農業総合試験場研究報告25 (2006) pp 53 - 57
多変量ロジスチック回帰分析による乳牛の肢蹄疾患の危険因子の抽出
北崎宏平*
福岡県の乳牛に多発する肢蹄疾患について,調査個体の罹患の有無を目的変数,調査項目である環境因子や生理因子を説明変数とする多変量ロジスチック回帰分析を行い,算出したオッズ比を比較することで関与の強い因子を抽出した。環境因子においては,タイストール牛舎は牛床に敷料がないことが蹄踵びらん,白帯病,蹄底出血・潰瘍および関節周囲炎の発生と関与し,また牛床がふん尿によって湿潤していることは蹄踵びらん,白帯病の発生と関与した。牛床が短く段差があること,およびネックレールや隔柵の位置が低いことは蹄底出血・潰瘍と関節周囲炎の発生と関与した。また,分娩室の利用がないことは白帯病の発生と関与した。フリーストール牛舎では,ふん尿によって床面が湿潤していることが蹄踵びらん,白帯病,蹄底出血・潰瘍の発生と関与した。また,生理因子においては,2産以上の泌乳中期は蹄底出血・潰瘍が,2産以上の泌乳後期では白帯病,関節周囲炎の発生と関与した。ボディコンディションスコアは3未満の牛において蹄踵びらん,蹄底出血・潰瘍,関節周囲炎の発生が関与した。
以上の結果から,肢蹄疾患の予防は関与した環境因子を優先的に改善するとともに,生理因子に該当する牛を重点的に観察することで早期発見することが重要であると考えられた。
[キーワード:乳牛,肢蹄疾患,ロジスチック回帰分析,オッズ比]
Factorial Analysis of Hoof and Leg Disease in Dairy Cow by Using a Multiple Logistic Regression Analysis. KITAZAKI Kouhei, (Fukuoka Agricultural Research Center, Chikushino, Fukuoka 818-8549, Japan) Bull. Fukuoka Agric. Res. Cent. 25: 115-119 (2006)
This study was conducted to clarify the factors contributing to hoof and leg disease in dairy cows by a Multiple Logistic Regression Analysis. The criterion variable was disease or normal, and explanatory variables were data on the feeding environment, reproduction and lactation. The factors were selected by comparing ratios. As a result of an analysis of the environmental factors in the tie stalls, such as having no material spread on the floor of the cubicle, the risk of heel horn erosion, white zoon lesions, sole hemorrhages/ulcers and periarthritis increased. The risk of heel horn erosion and white zoon lesions increased due to the wet floor in the cubicles attributable to feces and urine. Other factors that promoted the risk of sole hemorrhages/ulcers and periarthritis were brought about by the short cubicle floor and the small level difference between the floor and the ditch, the low position of the neck rail and low bottom rail of the cubicle. Additionally, lack of a delivery room increased the risk of white zoon lesions. An analysis of the environmental factors in the free stalls found that the risk of heel horn erosion and white zoon lesions and sole hemorrhages/ulcers increased due to the floor being made wet from feces and urine. An analysis of physiological factors indicated the risk of sole hemorrhages/ulcers increased in cows in a second or more parity and in the middle lactation stage. Also, cows in a second or more parity and in the later lactation stage had increased risk of white zoon lesions and periarthritis. Also, cows with a body condition score <3 had an increased risk of heel horn erosion, sole hemorrhages/ulcers and periarthritis. These results indicate that it is important to improve the environment and reduce risk factors for the prevention of hoof and leg disease. Furthermore, it is important to observe cows carefully for early detection of factors corresponding to physiological risks.
[key words: dairy cow, hoof and leg disease, multiple logistic regression analysis, odds ratio]