福岡県農業総合試験場研究報告14（1995） pp 125 - 128
温度変換日数（ＤＴＳ）法によるウンシュウミカンの満開期予測と精度
矢羽田第二郎・大庭義材・桑原 実
温度変換日数（ＤＴＳ）法によるウンシュウミカンの満開期予測の福岡県における適用方法を明らかにし，予測時期別の精度について検討した。筑紫野市における気象データを用いて，コンピュータ用プログラム〔ＦＬＯＷＥＲ〕による計算で得られたＤＴＳ法の温度特性値であるＥａは，‘山川早生’，‘興津早生’，‘青島温州’の順に２７，０００， １９，０００， ６，０００であり，ＤＴＳは同じく３８．３， ４７．６， ８５．６日で，成熟の早い品種ほどＥａの値は大きく，ＤＴＳは少なくなった。開花予測の起算日は‘山川早生’と‘興津早生’は１月２０日，‘青島温州’は１月２５日であった。満開期の観測日とＤＴＳ法による推定日との相関係数は，‘山川早生’，‘興津早生’は０．８９前後で相関が高かったのに対して，‘青島温州’は０．６７７と相関が低かった。過去１２年間の平均気温を用いて行った筑紫野市における満開期予測の精度は予測時期が３月中旬以降になってから向上し，観測日と予測日の誤差は３月中旬〜４月中旬は±２．５日前後，誤差の最も小さくなった５月上旬には±２．０日となった。また，筑紫野市における計算で得られたＤＴＳ，Ｅａ，
起算日などの値を用いて，県内３か所のアメダス観測地点における満開期予測を行った場合の誤差は，±１〜３日であった。
［キーワード：ウンシュウミカン，満開期，予測，ＤＴＳ法，精度］
Forecasting the Full Bloom Stage of Satsuma Mandarin (Citrus unshiu Marc.) by DTS Method. YAHATA Daijirou, Yoshiki OBA and Minoru KUWAHARA (Fukuoka Agric. Res. Cent. , Chikushino, Fukuoka 818, Japan) Bull. Fukuoka Agic. Res. Cent. 14 : 125-128 (1995)
Applicability of DTS (the numbers of days transformed to standard temperature) method to forecast the full bloom stage of satsuma mandarin in Fukuoka Prefecture and the precisions of the forecast were tested at every half months from mid-February to early-May. Values of DTS (standard temperature was 20 ℃ in this study) , temperature characteristics (Ea, unit was cal moll) and starting dates for forecasting calculated by computer program 'Flower' in three cultivars were 38.3 days, 27,000 and January 20 for 'YAMAKAWA WASE', 47.6 days, 19,000 and January 20 for 'OKITSU WASE', 85.6 days, 6,000 and January 25 for 'AOSHIMA UNSHIU' at Chikushino City. The correlation coefficients between observed and estimated dates of full bloom stage were ca.0.89 for 'YAMAKAWA WASE' and 'OKITSHU WASE', but for 'AOSHIMA UNSHIU', it was 0.677. The precisions of forecasting at Chikushino City with average temperatures during the last 12 years were risen from mid-March. The difference between observed and estimated date of full bloom stage were arround ± 2.5 days from mid-March to mid-April and ± 2,0 days at early May when errors were minimum. The difference between observed and estimated dates of full bloom stage forecasting at three AMeDAS (Automated Meteorological Data Aquisition System) stations in Fukuoka Prefecture using values of DTS, Ea and starting date obtained by computation at Chikushino City ranged from ± 1 to 3 days.
[Key words : Satsuma mandarin, Full bloom stage, Forecasting, DTS method, Precision]
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